Decarbonization scenarios for the iron and steel industry in context of a sectoral carbon budget: Germany as a case study

CO2 emissions from global steel production may jeopardize climate goals of 1.5 °C unless current practices will be rapidly decarbonized. At present, primary iron and is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels, primarily coke. This study aims to determine which decarbonization pathways can achieve the strongest emission reductions industry in Germany by 2050. Moreover, we estimate whether German able stay within its sectoral carbon budgets for a or 1.75 target. We developed three scenarios production: an electrification, coal-exit, capture storage (CCS) scenario. They describe phase-out coal-fired plants introduction electricity-based, low-carbon technologies, i.e. hydrogen-based direct reduction electrowinning ore. The consider age lifetimes existing coal-based furnaces, maturity emerging increasing recycling shares. Based specific energy requirements reaction-related per technology, calculated future Germany. found that under scenarios, annual decrease up 83% 2050 relative 2020. cumulative range 24% (360 Mt CO2) electrification scenario maximum 46% (677 CCS compared reference clearly demonstrates technology pathway matters. Nevertheless, sector exceed budget warming between 2023 2037. Thus, drastic measures are required very soon sufficiently limit production, such as, rapid electricity mix, construction hydrogen infrastructure, early shutdowns furnaces.